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73 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
NilsandClaude Fable 5 f0b7942c7a item 32 pre-registered (Nils's synthesis): discrete latent chain — lens-snapped token embeddings fed back via zero-init projector (ST top-32, TF/free-running arms, frozen arm-1 merge); sym_iterate in carry_common, trainer/eval wiring 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-18 00:16:08 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 3db6dd8fef MATRIX.md: full item 1-31 results matrix (arcs, positives, walls, open threads); overview PDF v3 updated with items 29-31 finals 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-17 21:24:13 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 7ac7f9651a item 31 scored: KV-memory flat (39.5 vs 39.1, p=1.0); all gates unmoved at -10 — vanishing-gradient init confound recorded; -3 rerun is the loose thread 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-17 21:04:46 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 96afac769e item 30 scored: readiness strongly decodable (AUC 0.80) but NOT recurrence-specific (FF 0.79); early-stop loses everywhere, oracle only +3.9 — head is instrumentation, not a stopping lever; extension/deferral gating stays live 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-17 20:04:06 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 64a20750bd item 29 complete: trajectory TF = adapter training signal for hybrid regimes (39.1, p=0.045), not an internalization mechanism (job 2 answer-only 15.6 < 19.1 plateau; FR term harmful) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-17 14:46:54 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 b18ffbd739 item 31 pre-registered (Nils's design): synthetic memory tokens — burst states → per-band-layer KV prefix via KVMemoryAdapter (in-place attention wrap, bit-exact disarmed, gated silent init); composed with frozen item-29 arm-1; +29 tf+fr in-flight note (30.5, FR term hurts) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-17 13:25:25 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 11604d0949 item 30 pre-registered (Nils's design): carried state as metacognitive signal — answer-readiness head on L30 at line boundaries, carry-vs-FF AUC as primary, theta sweep + oracle stop via item-20 LUT methodology 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-17 12:57:05 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 add87cdd72 item 29 arm 1: FIRST SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE — 39.1 (p=0.045 paired), every bucket a d=1 record; ablation 8-8 p=1.0 reattributes the gain: trajectory TF is a training signal for the adapter, not an inference loop 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-17 12:24:18 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 f1e6a628eb item 29 pre-registered (Nils's design): trajectory teacher-forcing — 10 waypoint transitions supervised independently (T[i-1]→T[i]), TF and TF+FR arms; job 1 d=1 step-span, job 2 answer-only full-CoT span 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-17 10:34:44 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 deae500ad0 item 26 scored: staging supervision actively harmful (24.2 alone, 15.6 combined) — blanket pre-'=' forcing corrupts the board's just-in-time schedule; overnight program complete, items 25-28 all scored 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-17 07:18:09 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 1af6cb5e45 item 28 scored: distillation succeeded (cos 0.113→0.044), function didn't follow — 30.1 matched / 29.7 ablated, easy damaged to 48.3; state-side supervision 2x2 complete and uniformly null; read-side clamp is item 29 candidate 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-17 03:41:43 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 67f9c3091c item 27 scored: 34.0 best-in-series with zero pauses, but paired ns (burst 10-6 p=0.45; vs positional 44-38 p=0.58) — ceiling holds; pause tape confirmed ~worthless (ablation 32.4) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-17 02:12:54 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 bbf8a02c6b item 28 pre-registered (Nils's variant): teacher-state distillation — frozen full-cot teacher's band-exit state at step end, cosine into burst s^10; λ amended 1.0→5.0 pre-run (smoke: baseline cos-dist 0.113) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-17 00:46:19 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 62ce30e557 item 25 closed (truncated): writing is not computing — lce 1.9 with 2:12 flat at 31.2 (log-only; eval json never written due to kill); λ=1.0 arm cancelled; item 27 promoted 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-17 00:25:32 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 44e814e78c item 27 pre-registered: zero-pause internal band looping — single M=10 in-place burst at prompt end, iteration-aligned lens targets, ii0 inference ablation; carry_steps gains inplace updates, trainer gains --inner-iters/--base-pauses 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-17 00:21:20 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 0cffce876b item 26 pre-registered: result-staging lens supervision at pre-'=' positions (no causal leakage — low loss requires computation); arms lg03 and lt03+lg03; item-25 in-flight note (lce 10.3→2.3) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-16 23:23:13 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 64abfe66f3 item 25 pre-registered: latent process supervision via differentiable lens readout — pause j trained to lens-encode deleted-step token j (λ=0.3/1.0 arms); carry_logits gains return_states 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-16 23:03:56 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 f31e6e7e30 item 24 closed (stopped by Nils): trainable band doesn't improve fit either; E2-L internalization line closed on all four axes; LoopLoRA k=0 bit-exactness validated in passing 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-16 22:55:10 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 fe89820e64 item 24 pre-registered: d=1 retry with loop-only band-LoRA r=16 (4.8M params, whole band, k=0 bit-exact); trainer/eval gain --bandlora; smoke-tested train+eval 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-16 21:44:01 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 7a141948fa item 23 scored: both control axes confirm — pp30 29.3 (within ±5 of 31.6, 3x pauses bought nothing), x600 no recovery; d=1 ceiling is structural, ladder chapter closed 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-16 20:08:54 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 46b5e1b802 whiteboard microscopy on hard(795)/drop(430) specimens: FF slips at the 3-term sum (155), carry re-expands and defers (165 ✓); boards show live continuation-plan vs premature digit-commit at identical prefixes 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-16 19:48:58 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 f143c67b3d probe_discount: single-prompt whiteboard microscopy (lens table + digit probs, carry vs FF control) on the 80/15% problem 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-16 19:14:23 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 001a4ca5f3 item 23 pre-registered: d=1 ceiling controls (x600 undertrain arm, pp30 pause-bandwidth arm, +-5pt decision rule); trainer gains --tag-suffix 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-16 16:27:54 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 7d60f37cf1 item 22 scored: ladder breaks at d=1 (57.4->31.6), plateaus ~19 at d=2/3 — 2x cold floor (d=3 vs base McNemar p=0.0025); latent loop trades easy reliability for hard/drop reach 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-16 15:29:42 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 20f7014f5b item 22 pre-registered: E2-L rung B internalization ladder (front-first deletion, 10 pauses/step, warm-started d=1..3); trainer gains --drop-steps/--warm-start/--steps/--lr; smoke-tested 2 steps on Spark 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-16 10:13:01 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 34497b8835 item 21 McNemar scored: drop-bucket edge significant (2:6 p=0.0094, survives Bonferroni x4); overall A-vs-B ns; + session handoff, fig cleanup 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-16 09:49:21 +02:00
Nils 051e90e805 item 21: GSM carry-cot 57.4% (5x prior best); control isolates whiteboard to drop-bucket; E2-N/A2 planned 2026-07-16 09:40:23 +02:00
Nils 1618c206ae item 20 scored; item 21 (GSM carry-CoT + control) pre-registered and queued 2026-07-16 02:42:46 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 4b9e168838 item 20: gate threshold curve + oracle bound (probs pass, merge per-item LUT, offline sweep) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-16 02:03:12 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 21908a0e33 E1c scored: easy routing solved (95.9% at 0.11 iters), hard recall regressed; threshold calibration = identified next knob 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-16 01:48:14 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 684e793eef E1c: k*=0 routing + pre-loop halt target (item 19 scored, E1c pre-registered) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 23:51:44 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 dafbd8fd25 item 18 scored (uniform-depth collapse, CE depth-flatness mechanism); item 19 E1b pre-registered 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 23:42:31 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 ba95d2aa3d item 18 amendment: E1 arms moved to 4xH100 parallel + seed-1 arm added (pre-results) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 23:28:38 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 357a5add06 E1 halting-gate machinery (adapter, trainer, gated eval) + pre-registration item 18 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 23:00:39 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 3a0a6a96ae INDEX.md (task-oriented repo guide), REGIMES.json -> results/, phase diagram updated with full sweep (anchored family, seed means) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 21:52:26 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 5d681a57b5 REGIMES: 31B structure (60L, d=5376, no KV-sharing key found) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 21:48:42 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 8ebb326745 REGIMES.json: canonical per-model lens registry (bands, KV boundaries, pinned revisions) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 21:45:12 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 cb0f1d950c item 17 scored: GSM-only current recipe fails as predicted; GSM chapter closed 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 21:14:58 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 2cd1f37f5f protocol: principled exclusion note for the design-space x GSM8K matrix 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 21:03:38 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 ed5455277b pre-register item 17: GSM-only prompt-only arm (last missing cell of the GSM question) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 21:01:23 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 c97d9d9cda kcurves final: all 10 panels filled 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 20:57:45 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 d81afef488 items 16 + 15-closure scored: cross-task transfer toxic (task-locality confirmed 3-point); noise-s0 50%+ was a lucky seed 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 20:57:44 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 1e6473e1aa parcae seed 1: fidelity refutation replicates (easy ~71-73% both seeds) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 20:56:28 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 b17d7faea0 rename kcurves figure -> fig_kcurves2.png (cache-bust) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 18:00:07 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 873dc351a0 kcurves updated: noise-s0 and h2048 panels filled (both cross the distill line) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 17:56:04 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 cf9e38f858 h2048 outcome: per-depth exonerated (sharing >> time-variation at matched params); ceiling nudged upward 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 15:00:32 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 713fbdce76 randk + noise-s0 eval JSONs (landed pre-crash) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 14:15:26 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 f0e524cf68 noise-s0 exceeds prediction upward; seed arms queued and pre-registered 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 13:01:14 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 ebf0eb8f49 pre-register item 16: code->GSM8K cross-task transfer 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 12:54:58 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 b013ca27f1 kcurves: full design-space grid (10 panels, distill reference line, auto-fills pending arms) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 12:42:29 +02:00