item 23 pre-registered: d=1 ceiling controls (x600 undertrain arm, pp30 pause-bandwidth arm, +-5pt decision rule); trainer gains --tag-suffix

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-16 16:27:54 +02:00
parent 7d60f37cf1
commit 001a4ca5f3
3 changed files with 33 additions and 1 deletions
@@ -583,3 +583,20 @@ curriculum effect + the reach trade, not scratchpad-free parity. Next
 knobs if the line continues: longer per-rung retraining, finer
 deletion schedule (fractional rungs), or E2-N noise-hardening stacked
 on the rungs.
+
+23. **E2-L d=1 capacity-ceiling controls (pre-registered 2026-07-16
+    ~15:55, before running; Nils: "run that one control").** Item 22's
+    break-at-d=1 has two untested confounds; one arm each, single-knob
+    changes from item 22's d=1 (both warm-start rung-A e400, seed 0):
+    arm A "x600" = 600 steps instead of 200 (3x training; tests the
+    brief-retrain objection — note d=1 val had plateaued at 0.36, so
+    prediction is NO recovery); arm B "pp30" = 30 pauses per deleted
+    step instead of 10 (3x latent bandwidth, same 200 steps; tests
+    whether inert-pause capacity, not training, binds). Eval n=256:
+    arm A cells 0:0, 2:12, 2:16 (e600); arm B cells 0:0, 2:32, 2:36
+    (e200). Decision rule, stated in advance: item 22 d=1 best = 31.6;
+    a control within +-5 points confirms the ceiling on that axis;
+    >=+5 (>36.6) reopens the ladder on that knob (longer schedules or
+    wider pause-chains); if BOTH land within +-5, the d=1 ceiling is
+    confirmed structural and the ladder chapter closes as scored.
+    Job: scripts/jobs/zzz_n_rungb_ctrl.sh.