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20f7014f5ba80c7582a04975384d0a143e22c350
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49 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
NilsandClaude Fable 5 20f7014f5b item 22 pre-registered: E2-L rung B internalization ladder (front-first deletion, 10 pauses/step, warm-started d=1..3); trainer gains --drop-steps/--warm-start/--steps/--lr; smoke-tested 2 steps on Spark 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-16 10:13:01 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 34497b8835 item 21 McNemar scored: drop-bucket edge significant (2:6 p=0.0094, survives Bonferroni x4); overall A-vs-B ns; + session handoff, fig cleanup 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-16 09:49:21 +02:00
Nils 051e90e805 item 21: GSM carry-cot 57.4% (5x prior best); control isolates whiteboard to drop-bucket; E2-N/A2 planned 2026-07-16 09:40:23 +02:00
Nils 1618c206ae item 20 scored; item 21 (GSM carry-CoT + control) pre-registered and queued 2026-07-16 02:42:46 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 4b9e168838 item 20: gate threshold curve + oracle bound (probs pass, merge per-item LUT, offline sweep) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-16 02:03:12 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 21908a0e33 E1c scored: easy routing solved (95.9% at 0.11 iters), hard recall regressed; threshold calibration = identified next knob 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-16 01:48:14 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 684e793eef E1c: k*=0 routing + pre-loop halt target (item 19 scored, E1c pre-registered) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 23:51:44 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 dafbd8fd25 item 18 scored (uniform-depth collapse, CE depth-flatness mechanism); item 19 E1b pre-registered 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 23:42:31 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 ba95d2aa3d item 18 amendment: E1 arms moved to 4xH100 parallel + seed-1 arm added (pre-results) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 23:28:38 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 357a5add06 E1 halting-gate machinery (adapter, trainer, gated eval) + pre-registration item 18 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 23:00:39 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 3a0a6a96ae INDEX.md (task-oriented repo guide), REGIMES.json -> results/, phase diagram updated with full sweep (anchored family, seed means) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 21:52:26 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 5d681a57b5 REGIMES: 31B structure (60L, d=5376, no KV-sharing key found) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 21:48:42 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 8ebb326745 REGIMES.json: canonical per-model lens registry (bands, KV boundaries, pinned revisions) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 21:45:12 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 cb0f1d950c item 17 scored: GSM-only current recipe fails as predicted; GSM chapter closed 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 21:14:58 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 2cd1f37f5f protocol: principled exclusion note for the design-space x GSM8K matrix 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 21:03:38 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 ed5455277b pre-register item 17: GSM-only prompt-only arm (last missing cell of the GSM question) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 21:01:23 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 c97d9d9cda kcurves final: all 10 panels filled 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 20:57:45 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 d81afef488 items 16 + 15-closure scored: cross-task transfer toxic (task-locality confirmed 3-point); noise-s0 50%+ was a lucky seed 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 20:57:44 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 1e6473e1aa parcae seed 1: fidelity refutation replicates (easy ~71-73% both seeds) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 20:56:28 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 b17d7faea0 rename kcurves figure -> fig_kcurves2.png (cache-bust) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 18:00:07 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 873dc351a0 kcurves updated: noise-s0 and h2048 panels filled (both cross the distill line) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 17:56:04 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 cf9e38f858 h2048 outcome: per-depth exonerated (sharing >> time-variation at matched params); ceiling nudged upward 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 15:00:32 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 713fbdce76 randk + noise-s0 eval JSONs (landed pre-crash) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 14:15:26 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 f0e524cf68 noise-s0 exceeds prediction upward; seed arms queued and pre-registered 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 13:01:14 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 ebf0eb8f49 pre-register item 16: code->GSM8K cross-task transfer 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 12:54:58 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 b013ca27f1 kcurves: full design-space grid (10 panels, distill reference line, auto-fills pending arms) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 12:42:29 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 4455d4bb9d ladder figure: base vs FF vs loops vs distill (fig_loop_vs_ff) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 12:26:22 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 fb5fb13806 tied-alpha outcome: all predictions confirmed; free B causally isolated as fidelity culprit 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 04:13:11 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 0a5cd80dc1 halting probe: output-stable orbit, not state fixed point; no free ACT at state level; paper claims softened 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 03:29:26 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 8981cda31d phase diagram: add per-depth point (fidelity kept, gain depth-stranded) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 03:25:16 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 b53538e82c per-depth outcome scored (depth-stranded content, shared-tail rescue); kcurves updated with k=8 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 03:20:49 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 82cc1b85b8 depth-curve small multiples per regime (fig_kcurves) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 03:16:58 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 0e6d6adcb9 fidelity factorial arms (randk / noises0 / hidden-capacity) + pre-registration item 15 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 02:47:14 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 d39e02f4b9 parcae outcome scored: dynamics confirmed, fidelity refuted -- stability and fidelity are independent dials 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 02:38:51 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 16f4a057aa TiedAlphaAdapter: learned per-dim alpha with tied B (anchored by construction); pre-registration item 14 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 02:33:14 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 f370883e23 phase diagram: stability vs fidelity are independent dials (fig_phase) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 02:24:56 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 1076d57d96 rec arm outcome: rho->4.5 (norm-projected churn), prediction (a) confirmed through k=8; k16/32 cancelled 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 01:39:22 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 d00f120f27 PerDepthAdapter (Bae-style per-iteration merges) + convergence-halting probe (free ACT); pre-registration item 13 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 01:07:01 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 f254b20b62 ParcaeAdapter: rho(A)<1 by construction (ZOH negative-diag), rho logging in rec arms, pre-registration item 12 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 00:53:34 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 d2da8044c3 RecurrentAdapter arm: Huginn-regime retrofit (learned A/B, noise h0, randomized depth) + pre-registration item 11 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-15 00:49:44 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 0fd93cb328 n=500 controls: paired net-effect significant (loop vs untrained merge 17-4, p=0.007); ladder and net accounting finalized 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-14 20:08:57 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 1d4cffd6ad integrate LCB dissociation (untrained merge wins far-transfer, p=0.001 vs trained loop), capability panel (no MC damage), L23 exit completes sweep 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-14 19:44:07 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 caef95f10f budget-CoT per-item: paired ties with latent arms confirmed (p>=0.69) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-14 17:29:56 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 2ce646d175 best-of-3 oracle/deployable split: realistic selector loses the overall edge (55.0/27.3 vs oracle 57.8/34.5); paper economics rewritten 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-14 17:16:00 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 dcd0b0b2dc HumanEval transfer: trained-vs-untrained-merge paired test (p=0.80, n.s.) -- transfer gain is the merge itself, not trained content 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-14 16:30:36 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 87308cfb0b score outcomes against pre-registered protocol items 1-10 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-14 15:48:36 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 55665ce251 CPU endgame: stats pass (Wilson/McNemar/pooled hard), final figures, PAPER.md rewrite around amortizable-content thesis 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-14 15:46:58 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 674b814b65 pre-register L9 discriminator arm 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-14 09:57:04 +02:00
NilsandClaude Fable 5 6c39c38eb9 track protocol pre-registrations and interim report in git 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-14 02:54:52 +02:00