h2048 outcome: per-depth exonerated (sharing >> time-variation at matched params); ceiling nudged upward

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

results-loop/PROTOCOL_UNIFIED.md

@@ -281,3 +281,18 @@ regularizes the content. SEED ARMS QUEUED (s1, s2, same recipe/eval,
 pre-registered here): if seed-mean hard(k=4) > 46.4 (the merge's best
 single cell), the recommended recipe gains noise-s0; if seed mean falls
 back into 37-46, it was a lucky seed.
+
+--- Outcome, item 15c (h2048 capacity control, scored 2026-07-15): the
+per-depth exoneration is CLEAN — shared 6.4M params reach hard 42.9/53.6/
+50.0 at k=2/4/8 vs per-depth's 17.9/35.7/42.9 at the same capacity;
+time-variation is strictly worse than weight-sharing at matched params.
+Fidelity prediction confirmed and exceeded (easy 95.1% at k=2 — best
+looped fidelity of the project; 90.2% at k=4/8). Ceiling prediction
+(hard <= 46%) REFUTED UPWARD like noise-s0: k=4/8 at 53.6/50.0. Two
+independent variations (noise s0, 4x MLP) now sit at 50-54% where the
+original merge reached 46.4 — suggests 46.4 was an UNDER-estimate of the
+recipe family's level, not a ceiling it defined. The distill-parity
+deflation claim is unaffected statistically (53.6 vs 45.7 at hard n=28
+is within noise) but the language "every regime tops out at the same
+ceiling" should become "at the same level within noise" — pending the
+noise-s0 seed arms.