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item 22 scored: ladder breaks at d=1 (57.4->31.6), plateaus ~19 at d=2/3 — 2x cold floor (d=3 vs base McNemar p=0.0025); latent loop trades easy reliability for hard/drop reach

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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Nils
2026-07-16 15:29:42 +02:00
co-authored by Claude Fable 5
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@@ -555,3 +555,31 @@ if it survives pairing, is the strongest argument for continuing.
this recurrence budget to absorb computation. Job:
scripts/jobs/zzz_m_gsm_rungb.sh (single submit, ~3x(40min train +
eval) on the Spark).
--- Outcome, item 22 (scored 2026-07-16 ~15:30). k=0 sanity row
reproduced base exactly in all three rung evals (10.9/93.1/0.8/0.0).
Ladder (best cell overall, n=256): rung A 57.4 -> d=1 31.6 (2:12) ->
d=2 18.4 (2:26) -> d=3 19.1 (2:32). (a) FAILED, decisively: the break
rung is d=1 — deleting ONE compute-matched step costs 25.8 points
(easy 83->62, hard 64->36, drop 45->17); the recurrence cannot absorb
even one step's computation at this budget/recipe. (b) monotone
through d=2, then a plateau (d=2 18.4 -> d=3 19.1, within n=256
noise): the decay bottoms out ABOVE the floor rather than collapsing
to it. (c) CONFIRMED: d=3 (pause-only for ~87% of items) = 19.1 vs
base 10.9 — paired McNemar 33-12 discordants, p=0.0025 — and vs cold
answer-only carry 9.4: the curriculum-reached latent loop DOUBLES the
cold-trained equivalent. Composition of the d=3 edge: easy is
DAMAGED (58.6 vs 93.1 base) while hard (18.9 vs 0.8) and drop (8.0
vs 0.0) are lifted — the latent loop trades easy-bucket reliability
for reach, echoing item 21's drop-bucket signature in latent form.
Deliverable: measured capacity of this recurrence budget = a plateau
at ~19% overall / ~2x the cold floor; the visible scratchpad carried
the other ~38 points. Val-loss note: hard val rose with d (0.36 ->
0.56 -> 0.59) while easy fell (d=3 0.13, mostly answer-line targets)
— CE fit does not track eval accuracy at deep rungs. Interpretation
for the plan: rung C' (no pauses) is moot as a capability claim — C
already plateaued at 19; the E2-L line's value is now the 2x-over-cold
curriculum effect + the reach trade, not scratchpad-free parity. Next
knobs if the line continues: longer per-rung retraining, finer
deletion schedule (fractional rungs), or E2-N noise-hardening stacked
on the rungs.