item 23 scored: both control axes confirm — pp30 29.3 (within ±5 of 31.6, 3x pauses bought nothing), x600 no recovery; d=1 ceiling is structural, ladder chapter closed

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Nils
2026-07-16 20:08:54 +02:00
co-authored by Claude Fable 5
parent 46b5e1b802
commit 7a141948fa
4 changed files with 3140 additions and 0 deletions
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@@ -600,3 +600,33 @@ on the rungs.
wider pause-chains); if BOTH land within +-5, the d=1 ceiling is
confirmed structural and the ladder chapter closes as scored.
Job: scripts/jobs/zzz_n_rungb_ctrl.sh.
AMENDMENT (2026-07-16 ~19:05, mid-run, Nils's call): arm A's eval
skipped to save ~50min GPU — the verdict was already decided by
training evidence (train loss memorized to 0.02-0.10 by step 200;
val easy 0.386->0.397->0.426, hard 0.357->0.376->0.421 across
e200/e400/e600 — monotone UP, textbook overfit, no recovery; k=0
sanity row reproduced base before the kill). Arm A scored from the
val trajectory: training time is NOT the binding constraint. Arm B
(pp30) runs in full as registered.
--- Outcome, item 23 (scored 2026-07-16 ~23:55; rc=0). k=0 sanity rows
reproduced base in both arms' evals (arm A's before its eval was
skipped). Arm A (x600): scored from val trajectory per amendment — no
recovery, mild overfit; training-time axis CONFIRMS the ceiling. Arm B
(pp30): best cell 29.3 (2:36; 28.5 at 2:32) vs item-22 d=1's 31.6 —
WITHIN the +-5 band, slightly below: 3x latent positions bought
nothing (hard 33.9/36.2 vs 36.2; drop 14 vs 17; easy 51.7-55.2 vs
62.1). Decision rule: BOTH axes confirm -> the d=1 break is
STRUCTURAL. Neither longer training nor a longer pause-chain lets
this carry absorb one scratchpad step; the binding constraint is the
carried state itself (its per-position expressivity/fidelity, not its
compute budget). Converging evidence from the same evening's
microscopy (probe_discount*/probe_gsm*): the board natively carries
plans ("Multiply", "subtract"), coarse magnitudes ("sixty/eighty"),
and completion-state ("plus" kept alive at the 430 divergence — carry
defers where FF commits a wrong digit at 99.3%), while exact digits
appear only just-in-time, 1-2 positions pre-emission. The ladder
chapter closes as scored in item 22; the loop program's live paths
are state-side (rung-2 band-LoRA / wider merge, E2-N hardening,
coarse-target auxiliary supervision matched to the medium) or the
hybrid (A2), not longer/denser pause-chains.