track protocol pre-registrations and interim report in git

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-14 02:54:52 +02:00
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+# Pre-registered protocol: unified adapter eval (written before any test numbers)
+
+Date: 2026-07-13, after val@499, before step-799 completion. No test-set
+number for the unified adapter exists at time of writing.
+
+1. **Primary loop depth: k=2, for both tasks.** Chosen on val CE with the
+   tie-breaking rule: prefer the SMALLEST k whose hard-cell val CE is within
+   0.01 nats of the best k. (Current val: MBPP hard k2−k4 = 0.004, GSM hard
+   k2−k4 = 0.006 → both ties → k=2.) The full k-curve is secondary/descriptive.
+2. **Checkpoint selection criterion (scalar, fixed now):** mean of the two
+   hard-cell val CEs at k=2, tasks weighted equally:
+   crit = (gsm_hard_k2 + mbpp_hard_k2)/2. Lowest crit among saved checkpoints
+   wins. (At writing: step 499, crit = (0.475+0.205)/2 = 0.340.)
+3. **Primary endpoints:** (a) MBPP test pass@1 hard-bucket at k=2 vs k=0;
+   (b) GSM8K test accuracy hard-bucket at k=2 vs k=0. McNemar, paired by item.
+   Overall accuracy is secondary (known to be underpowered at n=250/256).
+4. **Same-harness rule:** all k, INCLUDING k=0 baselines, measured by the
+   prompt-only fast-path scripts (`generate_frozen_prompt`; k=0 = plain
+   cached generate inside the same function). No numbers carried over from
+   the full-position-loop harness.
+5. **Known missing control (not covered by this run):** a same-size,
+   no-recurrence adapter (h -> h + MLP(h) at the L13->L14 boundary, no loop,
+   no band re-run) trained on identical data/objective. Until it exists,
+   "the loop does the work (vs. 1.6M new weights anywhere doing it)" is NOT
+   established. Queued as the next training run. Note the k=0 column is
+   gated off by construction and is a sanity check only — it is not this
+   control.
+6. **Symmetric interference check (missing):** dedicated GSM8K prompt-only
+   adapter as the reference for "unified costs GSM nothing". Queued. Until
+   then the no-interference claim is one-directional (MBPP side only).
+7. **Band-location ablation (pre-registered 2026-07-13, before any arm ran).**
+   Arms, all else identical (adapter size/init, data, curriculum, k, scripts;
+   MBPP): early L2-12, mid-narrow L17-27, late L24-34 (width-matched, 11
+   layers); shifted L6-22 (width-matched to the original 17). Reference:
+   workspace L14-30 (already run, 3 seeds). Prediction: workspace-centered
+   arms (L14-30, L17-27) exceed early/late on hard-bucket pass@1 at k=2-4 by
+   a wide margin; shifted intermediate. Falsification: near-parity across
+   arms demotes the lens claim from "locates where to loop" to "convenient
+   discovery tool"; to be reported either way. Primary readout: hard-bucket
+   pass@1 at k=4, e400 checkpoints throughout.
+8. **Language commitments for the writeup:** the k0->k1 CE collapse (e.g.
+   4.36->0.18) is format/template learning expected from any trained adapter
+   and must not be quoted as evidence of routing/planning; informative
+   comparisons are within k>=1 cells only. Depth ordering k2 vs k4 deltas
+   (0.001-0.006 nats) are inside checkpoint jitter and must be described as
+   "k>=2 fits hard items equally well; k=1 slightly worse."
+
+9. **Anchor/entrance sweep (pre-registered 2026-07-14 ~03:00, before any arm
+   ran).** Arms: bands (13,30), (12,30), (11,30) — injection point shifted
+   up from L14 at fixed tap L30; plus tap-23 = (14,23). All E2B/MBPP, same
+   recipe, e400, primary readout hard-bucket pass@1 at k=4. Competing
+   predictions: (a) "L14 special" (last full-attention KV-computing layer,
+   lens boundary) → anchor-13 drops; (b) "KV-channel count" (anchors 11-13
+   add 1-3 extra KV-recomputing attention channels) → holds or improves.
+   Body-length confound noted: earlier anchors lengthen the loop body; if
+   results shift, run matched-length control (12,28) before interpreting.