MATRIX.md: full item 1-31 results matrix (arcs, positives, walls, open threads); overview PDF v3 updated with items 29-31 finals

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

results-loop/MATRIX.md

@@ -0,0 +1,72 @@
+# The full matrix: items 1–31 (as of 2026-07-17 late)
+
+Scored source of truth: PROTOCOL_UNIFIED.md. All items pre-registered before running.
+
+## Arc I — Band-loop retrofit (MBPP; frozen E2B + merge adapter)
+
+| # | tried | key result | control/reference | verdict |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 1–4 | unified merge adapter, k-loop over prompt | MBPP hard 3.6→28.6 (k=2); GSM hard 0→6.3 | k=0 same harness | loop works on code; GSM fails from day one |
+| 5 | same-size adapter, no recurrence | 17.9 hard | vs 28.6+ looped | loop > weights — recurrence load-bearing |
+| 6 | mixed-task training | both tasks regressed | single-task arms | interference, no synergy |
+| 7 | band-location ablation | L14–30: 43.6 vs early 23.6 / shifted 21.8 | width-matched | lens's "where" confirmed; some bands structurally null (KV-share) |
+| 9 | anchor sweep 13/12/11 | 34/31/25% overall, monotone collapse | L14 anchor | L14 boundary special |
+| 10 | L9 anchor (full-attention layer) | catastrophic (≤21.4 hard) | anchors 11–13 | lens boundary, not layer type |
+
+## Arc II — Adapter-class factorial
+
+| # | tried | key result | verdict |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| 11 | unconstrained RecurrentAdapter | ρ→4.5, easy 98→69, no depth gain | 4× params bought nothing |
+| 12 | Parcae (ρ<1 certified) | robust training, saturates, easy still 71% | stability ≠ fidelity — independent dials |
+| 13a | per-depth adapters (LTV) | hard content depth-stranded (17.9 @ k=2) | weight-sharing load-bearing |
+| 13b | free-ACT probe | no state fixed point; no difficulty gradient | output-stable orbit; no free halting |
+| 14 | tied-alpha (anchored B) | easy 93 preserved; α never moves | free B = fidelity culprit; 0.3 optimal |
+| 15 | randk / noise-s₀ / h2048 / seeds | 50–54 cells → seed means 37–46 | lucky seeds; only seed means are levels |
+| 16 | cross-task transfer | code adapter on GSM toxic (easy →28–45%) | content task-local, monotone ladder |
+
+## Arc III — Gates & the GSM boundary
+
+| # | tried | key result | verdict |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| 17 | GSM-only training, best recipe | hard ≤8.7 | structural → supervision-density diagnosis |
+| 18/19 | learned halting heads (E1a/b/c) | all lose to E0 frozen probe; E1c easy routing 95.9 @ 0.11 iters | classifier quality binds; hard recall regressed |
+| 20 | threshold curve + oracle | oracle 59.6 @ 0.24 iters; hards depth-diverse | gate worth ~9.6 pts, unclaimed |
+
+## Arc IV — Hybrid & internalization ladder (GSM)
+
+| # | tried | matched | ablated/control | verdict |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 21 | carry + dense self-distilled scratchpads | **57.4** | FF control 54.7 | 5× prior best; recurrence edge = drop bucket, p=0.0094 |
+| 22 | delete steps d=1/2/3, +10 pauses each | 31.6 / 18.4 / 19.1 | base 10.9, cold 9.4 | breaks at d=1; plateau 2× cold (p=0.0025) |
+| 23a | 3× training steps | val ↑ (overfit) | — | time not binding |
+| 23b | 3× pauses | 29.3 | 31.6 | bandwidth not binding |
+| 24 | loop-only band-LoRA r16 | stopped (fit unchanged) | — | expressivity not binding; k=0 bit-exact validated |
+
+## Arc V — Lens/state supervision of the latent chain
+
+| # | tried | matched | ablated | verdict |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 25 | lens-CE: pause j ↔ deleted token j | 31.2 | — | lce 10.3→1.9 yet flat: writing ≠ computing |
+| 26 | result-staging on pre-'=' spans | 24.2 / 15.6 combined | — | harmful — violates just-in-time schedule |
+| 27 | zero-pause 10-iter burst + lens | 34.0 | 32.4 (p=0.45) | best nominal, ns; pause tape dead weight |
+| 28 | teacher-state endpoint distillation | 30.1 | 29.7 | cos .113→.044, function absent; easy damaged |
+
+## Arc VI — 2026-07-17 designs (Nils)
+
+| # | tried | matched | ablated/ref | verdict |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 29 | trajectory TF (10 waypoint transitions) | **39.1, p=0.045** | 39.1 burst-off (p=1.0) | first significant positive — a training signal, not an inference loop; +fr 30.5 (hurts); answer-only 15.6 < 19.1 |
+| 30 | metacog readiness head on carried state | AUC 0.798 | FF AUC 0.791 | signal real & cheap, NOT recurrence-specific; early-stop loses; oracle +3.9 |
+| 31 | synthetic KV memory (per-layer prefix) | 39.5 | 39.1 (p=1.0) | flat — gates frozen at −10 (init gradient-trap confound; −3 rerun open) |
+
+Instrument (unnumbered): whiteboard microscopy — three specimens + carry-vs-FF divergence (probe_discount*/probe_gsm*; board artifact).
+
+## Standing positives
+MBPP loop-vs-weights gap · GSM drop-bucket reach (p=0.0094) · the 57.4 hybrid · trajectory-TF as a gradient (p=0.045) · 0.8-AUC readiness probe.
+
+## Standing walls
+Consumption (8 write-side axes + 1 read-path attempt) · internalization (4 capacity axes + 4 supervision forms) · learned gates < frozen probe.
+
+## Open threads
+Seeds for 39.1 · trajectory TF on rung A (move 57.4) · KV gate-init −3 · extension/deferral gating · g into the depth gate.