From 1076d57d96c2c22de4194b98038c93f76771bd78 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Nils <u797+claude@posteo.de>
Date: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 01:39:22 +0200
Subject: [PATCH] rec arm outcome: rho->4.5 (norm-projected churn), prediction
 (a) confirmed through k=8; k16/32 cancelled

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---
 results-loop/PROTOCOL_UNIFIED.md          | 14 +++++++
 results-loop/eval_code_rec16_partial.json | 47 +++++++++++++++++++++++
 2 files changed, 61 insertions(+)
 create mode 100644 results-loop/eval_code_rec16_partial.json

diff --git a/results-loop/PROTOCOL_UNIFIED.md b/results-loop/PROTOCOL_UNIFIED.md
index a50d605..3a500bb 100644
--- a/results-loop/PROTOCOL_UNIFIED.md
+++ b/results-loop/PROTOCOL_UNIFIED.md
@@ -149,3 +149,17 @@ number for the unified adapter exists at time of writing.
     mean k_conv ≈ 3; hard-labeled items converge SLOWER than easy ones
     (adaptive compute allocates like ACT without any learned halting
     parameter).
+
+--- Outcome, item 11 (scored 2026-07-15, k=16/32 cells cancelled by
+decision after k<=8): PREDICTION (a) SUBSTANTIALLY CONFIRMED, with one
+twist. The unconstrained arm left contraction immediately (rho(A):
+0.3 -> 3.4 by step 100, plateau ~4.5) yet trained smoothly — per-iteration
+norm-matching converts magnitude explosion into directional churn, so
+"rho>=1 => divergence" becomes "rho>=1 => divergence OR stationary churn"
+under a norm projection. Consequences as predicted: substrate damage
+(easy 98.4 -> ~69% at all k>0, far exceeding any contractive arm's tax),
+val CE flat k=1..16 (stationary, not progressive), hard bucket at
+merge level (35.7/39.3/42.9% at k=2/4/8 — a one-item-per-depth-doubling
+crawl that at k=8 reaches what the contractive merge reaches at k=4,
+never approaching the amortization ceiling from above). 4x parameters
+bought nothing. Depth-monotone computation did not emerge at this budget.
diff --git a/results-loop/eval_code_rec16_partial.json b/results-loop/eval_code_rec16_partial.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..22ea67f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/results-loop/eval_code_rec16_partial.json
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+{
+ "tag": "rec16_e400_PARTIAL",
+ "note": "k=16,32 cancelled by decision after k<=8 showed prediction (a); rho(A) from checkpoints",
+ "rho_trajectory": {
+  "e100": 3.357,
+  "e200": 4.31,
+  "e300": 4.456,
+  "e400": 4.525,
+  "e500": 4.492,
+  "e600": 4.465
+ },
+ "ks": {
+  "0": {
+   "acc": 0.488,
+   "by_label": {
+    "easy": 0.984,
+    "hard": 0.036,
+    "drop": 0.01
+   }
+  },
+  "2": {
+   "acc": 0.408,
+   "by_label": {
+    "easy": 0.697,
+    "hard": 0.357,
+    "drop": 0.07
+   }
+  },
+  "4": {
+   "acc": 0.412,
+   "by_label": {
+    "easy": 0.697,
+    "hard": 0.393,
+    "drop": 0.07
+   }
+  },
+  "8": {
+   "acc": 0.408,
+   "by_label": {
+    "easy": 0.689,
+    "hard": 0.429,
+    "drop": 0.06
+   }
+  }
+ },
+ "n": 250
+}
\ No newline at end of file